Intesa Sanpaolo : This week saw the emergence of a possible draft agreement between the United States and Iran that should call for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
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Weekly Economic Monitor – 8. May 2026
Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department – Luca Mezzomo Economist – Paolo Mameli Economist – Andrea Volpi Economist Euro Area – Mario Di Marcantonio Economist US
and the phased lifting of the U.S. naval blockade within 30 days, with nuclear negotiations postponed to a later stage. However, caution remains warranted, as the parties continue to accuse each other of ceasefire violations and the situation in Lebanon remains tense. A key „turning point“ could be the Trump-Xi Jinping summit on May 14-15. On the economic front, German industry remains in difficulty, while in the United States the April employment report, though showing a slowdown in payrolls compared to March, confirms that the labour market remains resilient.
The week saw an unprecedented diplomatic acceleration since the start of the conflict. On Tuesday, Trump suspended Operation Project Freedom (which, launched just two days earlier with 15,000 troops and over 100 air and naval assets, had escorted only two ships in 48 hours), citing “significant progress” toward a “comprehensive and final” agreement. Rubio declared the military campaign “concluded”, signaling a shift from the original military objectives to an approach focused on reopening the Strait. In this context, a draft memorandum of understanding emerged that would include a three-step agreement: (a) a formal declaration of the end of hostilities; (b) gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of the blockade within 30 days; (c) commencement within 30 days of negotiations on the nuclear program, frozen assets, and the security of the Strait. Iran is reportedly evaluating the proposal. Moreover, even yesterday both sides accused each other of ceasefire violations, though neither declared the truce over.
Significant differences appear to remain: (1) Iran insists on its right to impose tolls in the Strait; (2) the status of the Lebanese front would remain outside the scope of the agreement (Israel has continued to strike the southern suburbs of Beirut in recent days); (3) Trump maintains the threat of resuming bombings if Iran does not accept. Furthermore, the “Hormuz first, nuclear later” approach represents a retreat from the initial U.S. position (the March 15-point plan, which demanded the dismantling of the nuclear program as a condition for ending hostilities).
Quelle: ETFWorld.ch
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