Intesa Sanpaolo : The draft agreement that emerged in recent days between the United States and Iran, if finalized, would confirm our current baseline scenario, which calls for a retreat – albeit a slow one – of oil prices in the coming months.
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Weekly Economic Monitor – 29. May 2026
Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department – Luca Mezzomo Economist – Paolo Mameli Economist – Andrea Volpi Economist Euro Area – Mario Di Marcantonio Economist US
However, the draft does not address the thorniest issue, that of Tehran’s nuclear program: therefore, we cannot entirely rule out a resurgence of tensions in the next two months. Next week, the U.S. employment report could show a moderate weakening of the labor market. In the euro area, inflation is expected to rise further in May: even if the U.S.-Iran agreement is confirmed, the ECB is likely to proceed with a first „precautionary“ rate hike on June 11.
Eurozone: even if the U.S.-Iran deal is confirmed, rising price signals from businesses point to risks of the energy shock spreading, which could prompt the ECB to make a first „precautionary“ rate hike in June
Quelle: ETFWorld.ch
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